A multiscaling‐based intensity–duration–frequency model for extreme precipitation          下载免费PDF全文

Hans Van de Vyver 《水文研究》2018,32(11):1635-1647

Rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are a standard tool in urban water resources engineering and management. They express how return levels of extreme rainfall intensity vary with duration. The simple scaling property of extreme rainfall intensity, with respect to duration, determines the form of IDF relationships. It is supposed that the annual maximum intensity follows the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. As well known, for simple scaling processes, the location parameter and scale parameter of the GEV distribution obey a power law with the same exponent. Although, the simple scaling hypothesis is commonly used as a suitable working assumption, the multiscaling approach provides a more general framework. We present a new IDF relationship that has been formulated on the basis of the multiscaling property. It turns out that the GEV parameters (location and scale) have a different scaling exponent. Next, we apply a Bayesian framework to estimate the multiscaling GEV model and to choose the most appropriate model. It is shown that the model performance increases when using the multiscaling approach. The new model for IDF curves reproduces the data very well and has a reasonable degree of complexity without overfitting on the data.  相似文献   

Continuous real‐time analysis of the isotopic composition of precipitation during tropical rain events: Insights into tropical convection          下载免费PDF全文

Shaoneng He  Nathalie F. Goodkin  Dominik Jackisch  Maria Rosabelle Ong  Dhrubajyoti Samanta 《水文研究》2018,32(11):1531-1545

To investigate stable isotopic variability of precipitation in Singapore, we continuously analysed the δ‐value of individual rain events from November 2014 to August 2017 using an online system composed of a diffusion sampler coupled to Cavity Ring‐Down Spectrometer. Over this period, the average value (δ¹⁸O_Avg), the lowest value (δ¹⁸O_Low), and the initial value (δ¹⁸O_Init) varied significantly, ranging from ?0.45 to ?15.54‰, ?0.9 to ?17.65‰, and 0 to ?13.13‰, respectively. All 3 values share similar variability, and events with low δ¹⁸O_Low and δ¹⁸O_Avg values have low δ¹⁸O_Init value. Individual events have limited intraevent variability in δ‐value (Δδ) with the majority having a Δδ below 4‰. Correlation of δ¹⁸O_Low and δ¹⁸O_Avg with δ¹⁸O_Init is much higher than that with Δδ, suggesting that convective activities prior to events have more control over δ‐value than on‐site convective activities. The d‐excess of events also varies considerably in response to the seasonal variation in moisture sources. A 2‐month running mean analysis of δ¹⁸O reveals clear seasonal and interannual variability. Seasonal variability is associated with the meridional movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and evolution of the Asian monsoon. El Niño–Southern Oscillation is a likely driver of interannual variability. During 2015–2016, the strongest El Niño year in recorded history, the majority of events have a δ¹⁸O value higher than the weighted average δ¹⁸O of daily precipitation. δ¹⁸O shows a positive correlation with outgoing longwave radiation in the western Pacific and the Asian monsoon region, and also with Oceanic Niño Index. During El Niño, the convection centre shifts eastward to the central/eastern Pacific, weakening convective activities in Southeast Asia. Our study shows that precipitation δ‐value contains information about El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which has a significant implication for the interpretation of water isotope data and understanding of hydrological processes in tropical regions.  相似文献   

Moment Magnitude and Its Calculation     

Chen Yuntai  Liu Ruifeng 《中国地震研究》2018,32(4):447-455

In this paper, we give a brief introduction to the proposal and development history of the earthquake magnitude concept. Moment magnitude M_W is the best physical quantity for measuring earthquakes. Compared with other magnitude scales used traditionally, moment magnitude is not saturated for all earthquakes, regardless of big and small earthquakes, deep and shallow earthquakes, far field and near field seismic data, geodetic and geological data, moment magnitude can be measured, and can be connected with well-known magnitude scales such as surface wave magnitude M_S. Moment magnitude is a uniform magnitude scale, which is suitable for statistics with wide magnitude range. Moment magnitude is the preferred magnitude selected by the International Seismological community, and it is preferred by the departments responsible for publishing seismic information to the public.Moment magnitude is a uniform magnitude scale, which is suitable for statistics with wide magnitude range. Moment magnitude is a preferred magnitude for international seismology, it is preferred by the agency responsible for providing information about earthquakes to the public. We provide all formulas used in the calculation of moment magnitude, and the calculation steps in detail. We also analyzed some problems and rules to solve these problems by using different formulas and numerical value calculation steps.  相似文献   

Validation of the SCEC Broadband Platform simulations for tall building risk assessments considering spectral shape and duration of the ground motion     

Nenad Bijelić  Ting Lin  Greg G. Deierlein 《地震工程与结构动力学》2018,47(11):2233-2251

Earthquake simulation technologies are advancing to the stage of enabling realistic simulations of past earthquakes as well as characterizations of more extreme events, thus holding promise of yielding novel insights and data for earthquake engineering. With the goal of developing confidence in the engineering applications of simulated ground motions, this paper focuses on validation of simulations for response history analysis through comparative assessments of building performance obtained using sets of recorded and simulated motions. Simulated ground motions of past earthquakes, obtained through a larger validation study of the Southern California Earthquake Center Broadband Platform, are used for the case study. Two tall buildings, a 20‐story concrete frame and a 42‐story concrete core wall building, are analyzed under comparable sets of simulated and recorded motions at increasing levels of ground motion intensity, up to structural collapse, to check for statistically significant differences between the responses to simulated and recorded motions. Spectral shape and significant duration are explicitly considered when selecting ground motions. Considered demands include story drift ratios, floor accelerations, and collapse response. These comparisons not only yield similar results in most cases but also reveal instances where certain simulated ground motions can result in biased responses. The source of bias is traced to differences in correlations of spectral values in some of the stochastic ground motion simulations. When the differences in correlations are removed, simulated and recorded motions yield comparable results. This study highlights the utility of physics‐based simulations, and particularly the Southern California Earthquake Center Broadband Platform as a useful tool for engineering applications.  相似文献   

Bacteria‐sediment associations in an alpine,freshwater environment and their effects on particle size,density and settling velocity          下载免费PDF全文

David C. Barrett  Kyle R. Hodder 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(10):2232-2242

This study measures the presence of bacteria‐sediment associations (BSAs) in an alpine, glacier‐fed watershed in the Southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia, Canada. The impact of BSAs on the creation of flocculated particles and their settling velocity are quantified using a laser transmissometer. Results from the study indicate that BSAs are present in the watershed and vary over both space and time. The percentage of bacteria associated with sediment particles was found to range from < 1% to 40%. Major sources of planktonic bacteria such as agricultural land and wastewater treatment outflow co‐occur with large decreases in the BSA ratio. Laboratory analysis demonstrates that an increase in the concentration of bacteria was associated with a decrease in the volume concentration of small particles, and a decrease in both estimated density and measured settling velocity for particles in larger size classes; consistent with flocculated particles of increasing complexity arising from combinations of primary particles and/or BSAs. Paleoenvironmental reconstructions using laminated lake sediments in alpine, glacier‐fed systems benefit from a fuller understanding of the geomorphologic processes by which they formed. While bacteria are noted to enhance formation of flocculated particles in laboratory systems, their impact upon geomorphic processes in natural systems have yet to be fully explored. © 2018 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

SIMULATION STUDY OF ROAD-CUT EFFECTS ON SLOPE STABILITY     

CHEN Xiao-li  WANG Ming-ming  ZHANG Ling 《地震地质》2018,40(6):1390-1401

Landslides and rock falls along the highway are common geological hazards in Southwest China. As an influencing factor on potential landslides behavior, roads or distance to roads have been successfully used in landslide susceptibility assessments in mountainous area. However, the relationship between the road-cut and the slope stability is not clear. Therefore, we performed two-dimensional slope stability calculation using the general limit equilibrium (GLE)method incorporated in the software SLOPE/W of GeoStudio for stability analysis of slopes. Our studies show that the man-made roads influence on the slope stability mainly exists in two ways:One is to create a new steep slope, which will result in rock falls and shallow landslides along the roads; the other is to influence the stability of the original slope, which will result in comparatively huge landslides. For the latter, our simulation study reveals that the road location, namely at which part of a natural slope to construct a road is important for the slope stability. For a natural slope with a potential slip surface, if a road is constructed at or near the slope toe where the potential slip surface surpasses, it will greatly degrade the slope's factor of safety (Fs) and make the slope unstable; however, if a rode-cut is near the top of the slope, it will increase the slope's Fs and make the slope more stable. The safety location is different for different slope angle, steeper slope needs a higher location for a safety road-cut in comparison with gentle slopes. Moreover, the slope stability decreases when loading a seismic force and it varies with the slope angle. Firstly, the Fs decreases when the slope angle increasing, and when the slope angle reaches 45°, the Fs then becomes greater with the slope angle increasing.  相似文献   

The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in Sicily,Italy          下载免费PDF全文

Angelo Forestieri  Elisa Arnone  Stephen Blenkinsop  Angela Candela  Hayley Fowler  Leonardo V. Noto 《水文研究》2018,32(3):332-348

Increasing precipitation extremes are one of the possible consequences of a warmer climate. These may exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, and thus impact the urban environment. Because short‐duration precipitation events are primarily responsible for flooding in urban systems, it is important to assess the response of extreme precipitation at hourly (or sub‐hourly) scales to a warming climate. This study aims to evaluate the projected changes in extreme rainfall events across the region of Sicily (Italy) and, for two urban areas, to assess possible changes in Depth‐Duration‐Frequency (DDF) curves. We used Regional Climate Model outputs from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Europe area ensemble simulations at a ~12 km spatial resolution, for the current period and 2 future horizons under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario. Extreme events at the daily scale were first investigated by comparing the quantiles estimated from rain gauge observations and Regional Climate Model outputs. Second, we implemented a temporal downscaling approach to estimate rainfall for sub‐daily durations from the modelled daily precipitation, and, lastly, we analysed future projections at daily and sub‐daily scales. A frequency distribution was fitted to annual maxima time series for the sub‐daily durations to derive the DDF curves for 2 future time horizons and the 2 urban areas. The overall results showed a raising of the growth curves for the future horizons, indicating an increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation, especially for the shortest durations. The DDF curves highlight a general increase of extreme quantiles for the 2 urban areas, thus underlining the risk of failure of the existing urban drainage systems under more severe events.  相似文献   

2017年四川九寨沟7.0级地震前地震应变场分析   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

罗国富  刘忠旺  丁凤和  马禾青  杨明芝 《地震工程学报》2018,40(6):1322-1330

以地震应变场作为地震活动的变量，通过自然正交函数展开方法，计算2017年8月8日四川九寨沟7.0级地震前的地震应变场，提取出震前时间因子的异常变化。计算结果发现应变场前4个时间因子在震前1~3年的中短期异常并不显著，只有第2个和第4个时间因子震前有小幅度的异常变化，分析其原因，时间因子可能受到2008年汶川8.0级地震和2013年岷县漳县6.6级地震前大幅度异常的影响。与时间因子对应的空间等值线形成局部应变高值异常危险区，可能是2013年岷县漳县6.6级地震和2017年九寨沟7.0级地震空间异常的中短期特征。再对比九寨沟7.0级地震前后与松潘-平武7.2级双震的空间异常随时间演变，分析异常发展变化模式的差异，最后应用地震资料的累积频次从物理角度解释异常形成的机制。  相似文献   

GPS约束下陇西地区断裂带现今滑动速率的非连续接触模拟研究     

孟庆筱  景鹏旭  何申海  党学会 《大地测量与地球动力学》2018,38(12):1227-1231

以中国地壳运动观测网络1999、2001、2004和2007年4期GPS观测数据为边界条件，使用非连续接触有限元技术构建陇西块体二维有限元模型，在摩擦系数不确定性分析基础上，计算区内主要断裂带滑动速率。结果表明，现今地壳形变运动状态下陇西块体的北东向运动在海原断裂附近受到鄂尔多斯块体、阿拉善块体阻碍，陇西块体周缘的海原断裂带、老虎山断裂、西秦岭北缘断裂呈现左旋走滑特征，滑动速率为3.5 mm/a、2.2 mm/a和1.9 mm/a，说明在青藏高原推挤作用下以上关键部位正在进行快速的构造应变积累。  相似文献   

Analytical study of ground motion caused by seismic wave propagation across faulted rock masses          下载免费PDF全文

J.C. Li  N.N. Li  S.B. Chai  H.B. Li 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2018,42(1):95-109

Studying seismic wave propagation across rock masses and the induced ground motion is an important topic, which receives considerable attention in design and construction of underground cavern/tunnel constructions and mining activities. The current study investigates wave propagation across a rock mass with one fault and the induced ground motion using a recursive approach. The rocks beside the fault are assumed as viscoelastic media with seismic quality factors, Q_p and Q_s. Two kinds of interactions between stress waves and a discontinuity and between stress waves and a free surface are analyzed, respectively. As the result of the wave superposition, the mathematical expressions for induced ground vibration are deduced. The proposed approach is then compared with the existing analysis for special cases. Finally, parametric studies are carried out, which includes the influences of fault stiffness, incident angle, and frequency of incident waves on the peak particle velocities of the ground motions.  相似文献